Let's Talk About Tariffs

Hey There,

This Mother’s Day marks our 15th here at Farmgirl Flowers—which honestly feels kind of unbelievable. I can’t tell if it feels longer or shorter than that - or somehow both at the same time? And while so much has changed over the years—again and again—one thing that’s stayed the same is how hard we work every single year to make this holiday feel extra special for your moms, your chosen family, the caregivers of your loved ones, and all the incredible people you love and celebrate.

And every year, we’re beyond grateful that you choose us to help you do that. I know I sound like a broken record, but truly your support means the world, and we wouldn’t be here without you. I can’t thank you all enough for this.

We planned to launch our Mother’s Day collection this past week—for all you early birds out there. Instead though, like so many businesses right now, we’ve been recalculating, reevaluating, and frankly, losing sleep trying to make sense of how the new tariffs will impact our business. I know just saying the word “tariff” might prompt a few of you to hit reply and send me a strongly worded email about your personal political views. And if you feel like you must—go ahead. But I want to be clear, I’m not here to argue politics. I’m here to talk about what these tariffs actually mean for our business—and, by extension, for you.

No matter where you fall on the political spectrum (and if you’ve been here a while, you probably have a good idea where I stand), this isn’t about taking sides. It’s about the math. And I think we can all agree—whatever our views—that in both business and life, the math has to, well… math.

After a lot of back and forth, and many conversations with our growers, partners, and vendors about how their pricing needs to change in light of these tariffs, I am happy to report that we will be able to launch the Mother’s Day shop - tomorrow. But, before that, I wanted to be transparent about what’s going on—and how it’s going to affect what you see from us this season and beyond.

If you're just here for the flowers (no judgment!), know that we’ll send y’all an announcement tomorrow once the Mother’s Day collection is ready to be shopped, so keep your eyes on your inbox. And if you need something sooner there’s a link to the web shop if you scroll to the bottom of this text.

For everyone else: buckle up. This is definitely another one of my LAEs (long a** emails).

So… especially after this week most of you know what tariffs are, but just in case: tariffs are essentially a tax on imported goods. The idea behind them is to encourage domestic production by making foreign goods of the same kind more expensive. And honestly, 2010 Christina would’ve supported this idea wholeheartedly. And even 2025 Christina still believes in the goal—but now I’ve got a whole lot more lived experience (and dare I say, wisdom) to know that it’s just not that simple.

Some of you may remember that in the early years of Farmgirl I tried my absolute hardest to source 100% North American-grown flowers—until we literally ran out of flowers. Domestic producers that would sell to us were shrinking in size and number so quickly that we literally couldn’t get what we needed to make bouquets. And the supply constraints we were facing as a rapidly growing business were only made worse when cannabis was legalized in the 2016 California election. Farms that had grown cut flowers quickly switched to this more profitable crop. And with the majority of cut flowers coming from California at that time, this meant a major supply change for us and for the industry.

I also tried with all my might to do what I still wish was a sustainable model: manufacturing everything ourselves, in house. We tried that for ten years in San Francisco, growing to a team of almost 200 full-time team members, and, during our peak holidays like Mother’s Day, another 150 seasonal hires on top of that.

But after years of giving it every ounce of energy we had - in recruiting, interviewing, training, and whiteboarding efficiencies for our design floor - I had to face the reality: it just wasn’t possible. In 2019 we had 30% of our positions open all the time. There was never not a moment we weren’t trying to get new team members in the door to be able to keep up with demand. But the labor availability just wasn’t there. Every manual labor driven business is competing with so many other businesses for hourly workers - from coffee shops, to bars, to restaurants, to retail shops - and many of those jobs required less physically demanding work with hours that are closer to “standard” business hours, or at the very least don’t require getting in before the sun comes up. We just couldn’t hire enough people who wanted to do this kind of manual work consistently, even with higher hourly wage, a 401k with a match, and full benefits.

So believe me, I didn’t just give it the old college try—I gave it the all-nighter, final-exam, don’t-sleep-for-three-days kind of try. And I failed. So when I say I don’t think it’s possible to bring back enough farming or enough manufacturing to North America, all while still producing a product at a price point people will pay because of the cost of the labor to produce it, or the warehouse to produce it in —I say it with firsthand knowledge.

But all of this is just scratching the surface.

The flower industry in the U.S. has changed dramatically over the last decade, the legalization of cannabis that restructured the west coast farming landscape, taking over land and labor that once supported flower farms, being just a small part of it. The pandemic wreaked havoc on planting and harvesting schedules, with supply chains yo-yoing so wildly that some farms couldn’t, and didn’t, recover. Not to mention that many multi-generational farms don’t have succession plans, so as older growers retire, there’s no one to take the reins. And, oftentimes, their land is worth far more than the crops they’re growing on it, so selling is the most viable option for their families.

The bottom line is that increasing costs, hard to find labor, the inevitability of employment lawsuits (especially in California where many of our domestic flowers are grown thanks to the multiple growing seasons), all make it much more challenging for farms to be able to operate and make a profit. In just the past two years, three major players in U.S. flower growing and wholesale have either shut down completely or pulled back their programs significantly.

And, even if we wanted to ramp up U.S. production right this second, it’s not like flipping a switch. Flowers take time. Peonies, for instance, take three years from planting to the first full harvest. And they take a tremendous amount of startup capital that takes years to recoup. As I mentioned in an earlier email, we’ve started growing some of our flowers, and (before the tariffs) we weren’t expecting to make our investment back for five years. I haven’t had the time to crunch the numbers yet, but I’d bet that timeline’s going to be even longer now.

And the truth is, some countries—especially those near the equator or in high-altitude regions like the Andes—are just uniquely suited for flower farming. They have the kind of microclimates that allow for year-round growing seasons. It’s kind of like coffee: some things just grow better in certain places, and no amount of tariffs, other legislation, or wishing, that will change that.

For those of you who are applauding the administration’s efforts to cut spending and reduce the deficit—I hear you. Truly. I’ve told my closest friends more than once that, if I ever sold Farmgirl (which, don’t worry, isn’t in the cards for us), I’d love to take a year off to try to balance the federal budget. I’m not kidding. My brain can’t wrap itself around how massive the deficit is, and how we’ve all just kind of... accepted that this is how it works.

I get that government economics are a whole different beast, and there’s plenty I don’t know. But from where I sit—running a business without venture or private equity funding—the idea that you can just keep spending more than you make is wild. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been staring at our bank balance, wondering how we’d make payroll, and still had to figure it out. Because that’s the deal when you’re building something from scratch: you have to make the math work. No bailouts, no blank checks. Just revenue and expenses. So yeah—analyzing how our tax dollars are being spent? I’m all for it. But how all of this is being implemented? It’s a head scratcher.

The way these new tariffs are being rolled out—and how fast they’re hitting—is nearly impossible for businesses like ours to adapt to without major disruption.

As we all have seen, the whiplash of will we / won’t we has been difficult at best and as I’m writing this, a new 90-day “pause” was placed on many existing tariffs, bringing them down to a flat 10% during that window, except for China, which is now jumping to 145% (although this number is constantly changing as I write this). That’s not just a scary number in the headlines—that’s a real, immediate, and significant cost increase for all of us.

At first it may just seem like it will only impact the cost of flowers. Over 85% of the flowers sold in the US now come from other countries (for the reasons I talked about above). But it doesn’t just impact our flowers. Most of the tools, materials, and equipment we rely on either come from or include components sourced from countries that will now be impacted. And the ripple effects? They’re everywhere—not just in places you’d expect.

When you start to think about all the secondary and tertiary (and beyond) effects these tariffs will have, it quickly becomes clear that this goes far beyond just flowers—it impacts our entire business, and every business. Take the flowers grown right here in the U.S., for example: the bulbs, roots, tubers, and seeds they come from? Most are imported. And yes, the flowers themselves—about 50% of what we source—is domestic, but those prices are likely to be impacted, too. Why? Because those farms rely on imported fertilizers, bulbs, seeds, tools, and equipment. When those costs increase, so do ours.

The trucks and vehicles our delivery partners rely on? Many of their parts are imported as well. The equipment used at sorting facilities, the pulp used to make the cardboard for our shipping boxes, even the burlap we wrap our bouquets in and the zip ties that hold them together—while some of these items may be assembled here, the raw materials behind them usually aren’t. It’s all connected, and when those costs rise, it creates a ripple effect that touches nearly every part of what we do. And while a 10% tariff may sound low, on a business (and industry) with sub 10% profit margins (and often sub 5%), that’s the difference between being profitable or not.

I’ve heard from folks who think these tariffs are a good thing. And I get where that sentiment comes from. But the question we all have to ask is: are we truly ready to pay significantly more for everything we buy?

While I believe strongly that voting with our dollars is one of the few ways we get to show our power, what happens when your values and your pocketbook aren’t in alignment? For instance, I try to buy American made whenever I can. Case and point - - a brand I love to support sells t-shirts that are sewn in here in the U.S and, because of that, cost almost $70. Which is a lot - more than most can or are willing to spend on a shirt. And I’m not sure if the fabric was made here. Or the thread. Or the tags. Or the sewing machines they use to make the shirts. So if $70 is already a lot to pay, am I ready to pay $80, or $90, or more for that same shirt? Or can my parents, who rely on social security and their modest 401K from over 40 years of hard work, afford to pay that, too? The same parents who also firmly believe we should be bringing more manufacturing back to the US. They have also heard all of my hardships for the past 15 years trying to do just that - thank you Mom and Dad!

So while I know we all want to buy more American made/grown/etc - how realistic is that? Until we’re all ready to spend a considerable amount more on everything we buy, how is that going to work? We have tariffs on imported elements to make American made goods, increasing minimum wages, huge deficits in people in our country who want to work in a manufacturing setting (because everyone was supposed to go to college so they wouldn’t have to work in a factory), higher taxes, insurance rates, legal fees, benefit load and, if you offer a 401k, retirement costs that are all the responsibility of the business. How is it possible to shoulder all those expenses and still make a tee shirt for a price point most Americans are willing to pay? I’ve run a company with a perishable product and miraculously haven’t run out of money yet, although I’ve come very, very close more times than I can count, and I don’t think it can be done - even though I really wish it could be.

So yeah, the tariffs are going to hurt us all. And they hit everyone—from tiny businesses like us to giants like Amazon. But here’s the difference: companies like Amazon, Nike, and [insert your billion-dollar brand of choice here] will weather this storm. They’ve got massive brand recognition, access to capital, and investors who can ride out rough quarters. But riding it out means making the tough calls—like reducing team size, switching to more cost-effective materials, and scaling back in every area of the business which ripples down to more lost jobs.

Small, independent companies—especially ones without VC funding or massive margins? We don’t have the same kind of buffer. Every cost increase forces us to make really hard decisions. And the sad truth is, if this continues, a lot of small businesses won’t survive. That’s the part I’m most worried about—not just for us, but for all small businesses, independent makers, growers, and creators who are going to get squeezed out.

So what does this all mean for you? In full transparency (because you know that’s how we roll): we’re going to have to change some of our prices.

We’ll absorb as much of the increased costs as we possibly can—but flower margins are already razor thin. Like, single-digit thin. Our net profit is just a few percentage points after all the costs it takes to do what we do.

Before I started Farmgirl, I was one of those people who assumed companies had plenty of profit to absorb extra costs like this. I get it. But now I know that the flower industry—like many others—runs on margins under 10% (and usually much lower than that). Add a 10% increase in flower costs, a few more points from transportation and equipment, plus everything else? There’s just not enough room in that equation.

So, yes— some pricing is going to change. And, that said, we’ve worked with our partners to share these cost increases, to find alternate sources when possible, to change recipes, and also absorbed a portion of these costs ourselves to limit the final impact to you as much as possible. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

For the time being, we will not increase the prices of the majority of our signature daily arrangements - the Fun Size, the Just Right, and the Big Love. We know these are what so many of you love Farmgirl for - and keep coming back to Farmgirl for - and so it was important to us to do whatever we could to help keep these prices as steady as possible.

That said, our Fancy Pants burlap wrapped bouquet, which is the biggest bouquet in our signature line up and always has a special variety or two in it to help it feel extra special for the recipient, will increase in price by $10.

The pricing of some of our seasonal arrangements that include a mix of internationally- and domestically-grown flowers may look higher than what you’ve seen from us before for prior collections. This is especially true for our bigger bouquets and some of our Vase, Vase, Babies.

If for any reason, the tariffs are changed or eliminated, our pricing will change, too. We will never profit from this situation. That’s just not who we are.

Like so many other small businesses in this boat right now, we’re just trying to survive these changes, just like we did through COVID and with any other obstacle that came our way before. And we’re going to keep doing everything we can so we can keep doing what we love: sending beautiful flowers that bring joy and make people feel loved, seen, and celebrated.

I know this was a lot. And if you made it this far—thank you. For taking the time to listen and for caring enough to understand. And especially for supporting a small business in a big, complicated world. We’ll be back in your inbox tomorrow rolling out a Mother’s Day collection that we’re so proud of. Until then, thank you—as always—for being here.

With gratitude,

Christina & Team Farmgirl